mallowstreet Flash Insights: Rising levels of concern about COVID and a changing economy

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In just a week before the Prime Minister’s announcing a lockdown in the UK, the mallowstreet COVID Concern Index readings have changed significantly: 

  • 96% expect the economy to look different after the outbreak. 
  • Personal concern index: up by over 15%, from 52 to 60 
  • Professional concern index: up by 6%, from 63 to 66 
  • The minimum expected duration of the outbreak has increased by 22%, to 4.5 months. 
  • The minimum expected duration of the macro effects of the outbreak has increased by 18%, to 10.5 months. 

Concerns about personal and family well-being are on the rise

As the UK has gone into a state of lockdown and people are asked to stay home as much as possible, pensions professionals report growing levels of uncertainty and a concern about the safety of the vulnerable. 

In addition to the severe toll the coronavirus outbreak has taken on institutional portfolios, UK industry representatives are now concerned about potentially ‘disastrous’ losses of 25% in their personal pension pots. Some report that members of their families have seen their income ‘fall off a cliff’. 

COVID-19 may lead to fundamental changes in the world economy

96% of UK pensions professionals believe the economy would look different after the coronavirus outbreak is over, with half stating it would look ‘very different’. The virus may ‘change the financial world’: more remote working, less travel, some industries transformed and others no longer in existence. 

UK schemes and their providers believe the ‘devastating’ macro effects of the outbreak won’t subside for at least 10.5 months from today. But this reading comes with a warning: it would only mark the beginning of the recovery. The resulting unemployment may be ‘damaging for a generation’. 

Let us know how COVID-19 is affecting you today, personally and professionally – click here to take the weekly survey.

 

About the COVID Concern Index 

This short weekly survey helps gauge sentiment of our community on the pandemic. The results are distributed each week via the community newsletter. 

The COVID Concern Index values should be used as indication only and do not constitute advice. Their values are bound by the choices available in the survey on which they are based. 

COVID Concern Index:                                 

  • 0 = respondents are not worried at all                    
  • 100 = respondents are extremely worried                            

Expected minimum duration of outbreak:                                         

  • Lowest possible value = 1 month                              
  • Highest possible value = 6 months                           

Expected minimum duration of macro effects:                                 

  • Lowest possible value = 3 months                            
  • Highest possible value = 12 months                         

Affected by the coronavirus outbreak? Click here to take part in the weekly COVID-19 survey.