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A winter in lockdown
A return to normality is proving difficult
A global recession threatens the UK pension system
Fiscal, inflationary and regulatory pressures remain
Sector sentiment changes
- While still neutral overall, the outlook for financials has improved for four straight weeks, possibly as UK pension funds realise the importance of lenders in providing a buffer to recovering businesses.
- The outlook on real estate is increasingly negative, perhaps reflecting concerns around valuations now that some property funds which had been gated resume trading.
- The outlook on industrials has deteriorated further after some improvement a month ago.
How worried are you about the second wave and its consequences? Click here to tell us in our bi-weekly survey.
Previous articles in this series:
- 17/09: Trust in UK government dwindling due to COVID-19
- 26/08: Another step in adjusting to COVID-19 uncertainty?
- 19/08: COVID-19 outbreak to last at least until February 2021
- 12/08: Trustee sentiment around COVID-19 pandemic deteriorates
- 05/08: Relaxed attitudes towards COVID-19 threaten economic recovery
- 29/07: Does COVID-19 mean the ‘end of the world as we know it’?
- 22/07: COVID-19 could weaken covenants and raise taxes and inflation
- 15/07: COVID expectations set, except for economic recovery
- 08/07: COVID concerns rise as economic outlook improves - why?
- 01/07: Lockdown easing raises COVID concerns
- 24/06: The UK government’s COVID-19 guidance attracts criticism
- 17/06: COVID concerns shift to life after lockdown
- 10/06: Will lockdown easing cause COVID concerns to rise?
- 03/06: COVID concerns at an all-time low – is the worst over?
- 27/05: Personal COVID concern subsides – but this may be a problem
- 20/05: UK pension trustees worry there may be no ‘going back’ after COVID
- 13/05: UK pension schemes don’t trust the lockdown exit strategy
- 06/05: Concerns over duration of COVID lockdown and macro effects intensify
- 29/04: Professional COVID concern spikes by 18% as trustees brace for a longer lockdown
- 22/04: Macro effects of COVID to last until 2022, with personal concerns up by 10%
- 15/04: COVID concerns fluctuate – there is no path to normalisation in sight
- 08/04: The magnitude of COVID’s economic impact remains unclear
- 01/04: Have UK pensions schemes settled into the ‘new normal’ of COVID-19?
- 25/03: Rising levels of concern about COVID and a changing economy
- 23/03: What do pension funds think about the economic impact of COVID-19?
- 19/03: COVID-19: Government response divides pensions community
- 18/03: 96% of pension funds and trustees preparing for a long-term COVID-19 fallout
- 18/03: mallowstreet Flash Insights Report: COVID-19 – what’s on trustees’ minds
About the COVID Concern Index
- 0 = respondents are not worried at all
- 100 = respondents are extremely worried
- Lowest possible value = 1 month
- Highest possible value = 6 months
- Lowest possible value = 3 months
- Highest possible value = 12 months
- Lowest possible value = 3 months
- Highest possible value = 60 months
- -100 = respondents think rates will fall
- 0 = respondents think rates will stay the same
- +100 = respondents think rates will rise
- -100 = respondents think the sector will be a ‘loser’ in the pandemic
- 0 = respondents see a neutral outlook for the sector
- +1 = respondents think the sector will be a ‘winner’ in the pandemic