A silver lining — economy likely to hit pre-pandemic levels in 2022
Pardon the Interruption
This article is just an example of the content available to mallowstreet members.
On average over 150 pieces of new content are published from across the industry per month on mallowstreet. Members get access to the latest developments, industry views and a range of in-depth research.
All the content on mallowstreet is accredited for CPD by the PMI and is available to trustees for free.
UK schemes are getting a better handle on the nature of the pandemic’s macro-consequences. In earlier reports, many thought such effects were likely to last well into 2023. However, outlooks are improving significantly, and now our panel sees the end of 2022 as a much more feasible timeline.
A smaller window for the macro-effects does not mean that we will be clear from further risks - on the contrary. Many in our panel are concerned that the government has not taken the necessary steps to prepare us for future disruptions.
They are also seeing a problem in the government’s failure to stem the rise of community transmission. Westminster’s messaging has been better of late, but most remain somewhat worried by government guidance during the crisis.
British public has a spring in the step as many start embracing new freedoms
The country is re-opening, and many are reuniting with their friends and families. Unfortunately, the panel think it is unlikely that we get to enjoy international travel before December, but we can still holiday within the country; our panel expects we will return to UK travel as early as next month.
Moving into summer and autumn, they further advise that we should not expect to:
Attend a family gathering or see colleagues in person until June
Work from the office until August
Hold in-person meetings until September
Attend in-person events until October
When will we return to in-person events?
Over half of our panel are uncomfortable about attending in-person events, but the proportion that are somewhat comfortable attending an event is rising.
Some state that they will only feel safe if they have already received the jab. Others in the panel would only attend events if social distancing were in place and the venues were well-ventilated. Another interesting idea was for hybrid events that combine a webinar with low numbers of in-person attendees.
Concerns are down but many covenants are weaker since the start of the pandemic
The COVID concern indices are dropping further into all-time lows. And rates of professional and family concern have entered the 30s for the very first time. Panel members are also confident that the success of the vaccination campaign will continue lowering the risks to themselves and loved ones. Professional concerns are also down, but some remain hesitant, countering that it still too early for us to gauge the extent of the pandemic’s long-term consequences.
Another professional concern relates to the strength of the sponsor covenant, which is weaker since the outbreak. In fact, 53% of schemes describe their sponsor covenant as weaker or much weaker. Only a third identify their covenant as unchanged since the outbreak. We will continue monitoring the pandemic’s impact on the covenant to see if this trend starts to reverse course.
Are you considering an international holiday this year, and how has the pandemic impacted your sponsor covenant? Click here to tell us in our bi-weekly survey.
This short survey helps gauge sentiment of our community on the pandemic. The results are distributed via the community newsletter. Until 31/08/2020, this was a weekly survey. From 01/09/2020, the survey shifted to a bi-weekly cadence.
The COVID Concern Index values should be used as indication only and do not constitute advice. Their values are bound by the choices available in the survey on which they are based.
COVID Concern Index:
0 = respondents are not worried at all
100 = respondents are extremely worried
Expected minimum duration of outbreak:
A methodology change took place on 06/10/2020, affecting data from 20/10/2020 onwards.
Prior to 06/10/2020:
Lowest possible value = 1 month
Highest possible value = 6 months
Following 20/10/2020:
Lowest possible value = 1 month
Highest possible value = 12 months
Expected minimum duration of macro effects:
A methodology change took place on 15/04/2020, affecting data from 21/04/2020 onwards.
Prior to 15/04/2020:
Lowest possible value = 3 months
Highest possible value = 12 months
Following 15/04/2020:
Lowest possible value = 3 months
Highest possible value = 60 months
Macro rates index:
-100 = all respondents think rates will fall
0 = all respondents think rates will stay the same
+100 = all respondents think rates will rise
Sector sentiment index:
-100 = all respondents think the sector will be a ‘loser’ in the pandemic
0 = all respondents see a neutral outlook for the sector
+100 = all respondents think the sector will be a ‘winner’ in the pandemic
Concerned about the coronavirus outbreak and its macro implications? Click here to take part in the bi-weekly COVID-19 survey.
