COVID concerns at an all-time low – is the worst over?
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COVID concern indices have registered their biggest drop to date: personal and family worries are down by 16% and 24% respectively, and professional concern has receded by 9%. Is the worst behind us?
Will social distancing help prevent a second peak?
Opinions about the UK government’s evolving approach to containing the virus remain mixed. Some of our respondents believe rules are being followed and are sufficient given where we are in the outbreak. Others are worried that people are not being cautious enough and that this will only get worse with shops reopening and warm weather making beaches appealing destinations for day trips.
Whether a second peak will occur is unknown at this point, but the expected minimum duration of the outbreak has decreased slightly in the view of survey participants, who now say that the outbreak could be contained by October.
Economic optimism prevails
Some of our respondents have experienced significant pressures in winning new clients and keeping existing ones, so the gradual reopening of the UK economy is welcome news. The expected minimum duration of the economic consequences of COVID-19 has dropped considerably since last week, by 31%.
Only a quarter of our research panel now believe the economy will look completely differently after the pandemic, compared with 50% last week. They feel that some business models will need a complete overhaul, but the pandemic is no longer perceived as a total game changer – instead, the view is now that the extent of future change will differ from sector to sector.
Is the growing optimism encouraging or a cause for concern? Click here to take next week’s survey.
Previous articles in this series:
- 27/05: Personal COVID concern subsides – but this may be a problem
- 20/05: UK pension trustees worry there may be no ‘going back’ after COVID
- 13/05: UK pension schemes don’t trust the lockdown exit strategy
- 06/05: Concerns over duration of COVID lockdown and macro effects intensify
- 29/04: Professional COVID concern spikes by 18% as trustees brace for a longer lockdown
- 22/04: Macro effects of COVID to last until 2022, with personal concerns up by 10%
- 15/04: COVID concerns fluctuate – there is no path to normalisation in sight
- 08/04: Although personal concerns subside, the magnitude of COVID’s economic impact remains unclear
- 01/04: COVID Concern Index subsides – have UK pensions schemes settled into the ‘new normal’?
- 25/03: mallowstreet Flash Insights: Rising levels of concern about COVID and a changing economy
- 23/03: mallowstreet Insights: Asset managers have shared their views on the economic impact of COVID-19, but what do pension funds think?
- 19/03: COVID-19: Government response divides pensions community
- 18/03: 96% of pension funds and trustees preparing for a long-term COVID-19 fallout
- 18/03: mallowstreet Flash Insights Report: COVID-19 – what’s on trustees’ minds
About the COVID Concern Index
This short weekly survey helps gauge sentiment of our community on the pandemic. The results are distributed each week via the community newsletter.
The COVID Concern Index values should be used as indication only and do not constitute advice. Their values are bound by the choices available in the survey on which they are based.
COVID Concern Index:
- 0 = respondents are not worried at all
- 100 = respondents are extremely worried
Expected minimum duration of outbreak:
- Lowest possible value = 1 month
- Highest possible value = 6 months
Expected minimum duration of macro effects:
A methodology change took place on 15/04/2020, affecting data from 21/04/2020 onwards.
Prior to 15/04/2020:
- Lowest possible value = 3 months
- Highest possible value = 12 months
- Lowest possible value = 3 months
- Highest possible value = 60 months
Concerned about the coronavirus outbreak and its macro implications? Click here to take part in the weekly COVID-19 survey.