COVID concerns climb to their highest levels since April 

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Our COVID-19 concern indices are rising, bringing family, professional and personal concerns to levels not seen since early April. Many in our research panel report that despite being fully jabbed, they remain fearful the vaccine will prove ineffective against newer variants. Another factor driving concerns is the loss of confidence in the government, which several panel members criticise for being reckless in its rush to loosen restrictions. 


 

Growing scepticism over Westminster’s pandemic guidance 

 
Over a third of our research panel are ‘very’ or ‘extremely’ worried about the government’s handling of the pandemic and nearly half are ‘somewhat’ worried. Most of the frustration is over the government’s strategy for loosening COVID restrictions, which many contend is both confusing and unscientific. Another criticism is that Whitehall has failed to account for an inevitable wave of infection rates once restrictions are removed on July 19th.  Relaxing restrictions too soon could force us into another lockdown, which would ultimately harm the economy’s ability to recover, with many businesses closing their doors again, they fear. 

 

Public safety paramount in social engagements 

 
Many parts of the globe have failed to keep pace with the UK’s vaccination campaign, but panel members are worried that newer variants may prove resilient against the current batches of the vaccine. Despite such risks, UK residents returning from amber list countries will no longer be required to self-isolate and get tested, as long as they have been fully jabbed with an NHS-approved vaccine.   
 
Our panel thinks this is prompting a blasé attitude about public safety and urges others to remain vigilant by limiting their interactions to small gatherings with loved ones. They also suggest that we should practice patience and not return to face-to-face meetings, in-person events or working from the office until at least September; and that it would be more sensible to forego international travel plans until next year. 


 

Schemes predict long lasting macro consequences from the pandemic 

 
Global macroeconomic challenges are compounded by heavy borrowing to help individuals and businesses stay afloat during the pandemic, our panel members say.  They are also concerned that the pandemic will force lawmakers into a ‘no-win’ scenario where they must either risk a dramatic spike in inflation by continuing to prop up furlough schemes or accept higher rates of unemployment by removing these schemes. Many also wrongly expect this outbreak to suddenly go away, so governments and the public at large must come to terms with the reality that COVID is likely to become endemic. The panel expects the macro consequences of this new reality to last well into 2023. 


 
What are the consequences of the government’s reopening plans, and how do you feel about the threat of new variants? Click hereto tell us in our bi-weekly survey. 
 
Previous articles in this series: 
 
30/06: COVID-19 concerns are down but the delta variant remains a key worry 
16/06: COVID-19 concerns rise as delta variant delays reopening and recovery 
03/06: Rising challenges could disrupt the country’s race towards herd immunity 
20/05: New risks emerge as many come to grips with the spread of new COVID variants 
05/05: COVID concern indices dip to all-time lows as most covenants are left unchanged by the pandemic 
20/04: A silver lining – economy likely to hit pre-pandemic levels in 2022 
07/04: Professional COVID concerns plummet to all-time lows 
25/03: Covid concerns are down, but new risks emerge 
11/03: Concerns over the pandemic’s lasting impact on the world of work are growing 
24/02: Pension professionals urge caution as vaccination efforts continue 
12/02: High vaccinations rates bring down COVID-19 concerns 
27/01: COVID-19 concerns at an all-time high 
13/01: New COVID-19 strain makes pandemic spiral out of control 
15/12: Another COVID summer on the cards despite vaccine rollout 
02/12: Divergent COVID-19 concerns show different realities 
18/11: The risks and consequences of COVID-19 complacency 
04/11: Sharp rise in COVID-19 concerns before the second lockdown in England 
22/10: COVID-19 outbreak to last at least until June 2021 
07/10: Prolonged COVID-19 outbreak is putting pressure on covenants 
23/09: How will the second COVID-19 wave impact UK schemes? 
17/09: Trust in UK government dwindling due to COVID-19 
26/08: Another step in adjusting to COVID-19 uncertainty? 
19/08: COVID-19 outbreak to last at least until February 2021 
12/08: Trustee sentiment around COVID-19 pandemic deteriorates 
05/08: Relaxed attitudes towards COVID-19 threaten economic recovery 
29/07: Does COVID-19 mean the ‘end of the world as we know it’? 
22/07: COVID-19 could weaken covenants and raise taxes and inflation 
15/07: COVID expectations set, except for economic recovery 
08/07: COVID concerns rise as economic outlook improves - why? 
01/07: Lockdown easing raises COVID concerns 
24/06: The UK government’s COVID-19 guidance attracts criticism 
17/06: COVID concerns shift to life after lockdown 
10/06: Will lockdown easing cause COVID concerns to rise? 
03/06: COVID concerns at an all-time low – is the worst over? 
27/05: Personal COVID concern subsides – but this may be a problem 
20/05: UK pension trustees worry there may be no ‘going back’ after COVID 
13/05: UK pension schemes don’t trust the lockdown exit strategy 
06/05: Concerns over duration of COVID lockdown and macro effects intensify 
29/04: Professional COVID concern spikes by 18% as trustees brace for a longer lockdown 
22/04: Macro effects of COVID to last until 2022, with personal concerns up by 10% 
15/04: COVID concerns fluctuate – there is no path to normalisation in sight 
08/04: The magnitude of COVID’s economic impact remains unclear 
01/04: Have UK pensions schemes settled into the ‘new normal’ of COVID-19? 
25/03: Rising levels of concern about COVID and a changing economy 
23/03: What do pension funds think about the economic impact of COVID-19? 
19/03: COVID-19: Government response divides pensions community 
18/03: 96% of pension funds and trustees preparing for a long-term COVID-19 fallout 
18/03: mallowstreet Flash Insights Report: COVID-19 – what’s on trustees’ minds 
 
 
About the COVID Concern Index 
 
This short survey helps gauge sentiment of our community on the pandemic. The results are distributed via the community newsletter. Until 31/08/2020, this was a weekly survey. From 01/09/2020, the survey shifted to a bi-weekly cadence. 
 
The COVID Concern Index values should be used as indication only and do not constitute advice. Their values are bound by the choices available in the survey on which they are based. 
 
COVID Concern Index: 
 
 
Expected minimum duration of outbreak: 
 
A methodology change took place on 06/10/2020, affecting data from 20/10/2020 onwards. 
 
Prior to 06/10/2020: 
 
 
Following 20/10/2020: 
 
 
Expected minimum duration of macro effects: 
 
A methodology change took place on 15/04/2020, affecting data from 21/04/2020 onwards. 
 
Prior to 15/04/2020: 
 
 
Following 15/04/2020: 
 
 
Macro rates index: 
 
 
Sector sentiment index: 
 
 
Concerned about the coronavirus outbreak and its macro implications? Click here to take part in the bi-weekly COVID-19 survey. 

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