Vaccine uptake has shown promise but we’re not out of the woods yet 

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Rates of concern have dropped sharply in our COVID-19 indices compared with two weeks ago. However, some members of our research panel are wary that many people are not taking the risks of spreading the virus seriously. Another fear among panellists is that we do not have enough evidence to determine if existing vaccines will prove effective against new variants.  



 

Has Westminster’s gamble paid off? 

 
In our last report, our panel was worried that Whitehall was being reckless in its rush to go forward with its ‘Freedom Day’ plans, and many were critical of its approach. However, the proportion of those ‘very’ or ‘extremely’ worried about the government’s guidance has dropped from 40% to 13%. Worries are lower but many remain unconvinced that the government has a coherent plan in place. Nevertheless, there are reasons to feel more optimistic, for example, some in our survey are happy that more teenagers are embracing the jab and that the NHS is doing a good job managing current case numbers. 


 

We should wait a few more months before returning to in-person events  

 
Three weeks have passed since the government removed safety restrictions on 19 July, and most of the country have embraced these freedoms by taking holidays in the UK, visiting family and friends, and socialising in public places like their local pub. 
 
However, our panel warns that it is too early for a wholesale return to other activities, especially working from the office, which they expect will be delayed until November. They also conclude that gatherings in larger social venues are not safe enough and that that we will not see a return to live events until October.  

 

COVID – here to stay for the foreseeable future? 

 
The world is coming to terms with a new reality in which COVID-19 and its variants may well become a permanent fixture in our lives. The UK has had a successful vaccination campaign, but our panel warns that new variants will continue to pose challenges moving forward. Some are also worried that the macro impact of this pandemic will be extremely long-lasting because many governments borrowed heavily for their support schemes, which will inevitably force them into making hard decisions about how to pay off their debts. Given the complexities of these challenges, they expect the macro effects of COVID to last until 2024. 

 
How do you feel safe about attending live events and what can the government to do get a better handle on this pandemic? Click hereto tell us in our bi-weekly survey. 
 
Previous articles in this series: 
 
28/07: Mounting concerns driven by rising cases and slowing vaccination rates
14/07: COVID concerns climb to their highest levels since April 
30/06: COVID-19 concerns are down but the delta variant remains a key worry 
16/06: COVID-19 concerns rise as delta variant delays reopening and recovery 
03/06: Rising challenges could disrupt the country’s race towards herd immunity 
20/05: New risks emerge as many come to grips with the spread of new COVID variants 
05/05: COVID concern indices dip to all-time lows as most covenants are left unchanged by the pandemic 
20/04: A silver lining – economy likely to hit pre-pandemic levels in 2022 
07/04: Professional COVID concerns plummet to all-time lows 
25/03: Covid concerns are down, but new risks emerge 
11/03: Concerns over the pandemic’s lasting impact on the world of work are growing 
24/02: Pension professionals urge caution as vaccination efforts continue 
12/02: High vaccinations rates bring down COVID-19 concerns 
27/01: COVID-19 concerns at an all-time high 
13/01: New COVID-19 strain makes pandemic spiral out of control 
15/12: Another COVID summer on the cards despite vaccine rollout 
02/12: Divergent COVID-19 concerns show different realities 
18/11: The risks and consequences of COVID-19 complacency 
04/11: Sharp rise in COVID-19 concerns before the second lockdown in England 
22/10: COVID-19 outbreak to last at least until June 2021 
07/10: Prolonged COVID-19 outbreak is putting pressure on covenants 
23/09: How will the second COVID-19 wave impact UK schemes? 
17/09: Trust in UK government dwindling due to COVID-19 
26/08: Another step in adjusting to COVID-19 uncertainty? 
19/08: COVID-19 outbreak to last at least until February 2021 
12/08: Trustee sentiment around COVID-19 pandemic deteriorates 
05/08: Relaxed attitudes towards COVID-19 threaten economic recovery 
29/07: Does COVID-19 mean the ‘end of the world as we know it’? 
22/07: COVID-19 could weaken covenants and raise taxes and inflation 
15/07: COVID expectations set, except for economic recovery 
08/07: COVID concerns rise as economic outlook improves - why? 
01/07: Lockdown easing raises COVID concerns 
24/06: The UK government’s COVID-19 guidance attracts criticism 
17/06: COVID concerns shift to life after lockdown 
10/06: Will lockdown easing cause COVID concerns to rise? 
03/06: COVID concerns at an all-time low – is the worst over? 
27/05: Personal COVID concern subsides – but this may be a problem 
20/05: UK pension trustees worry there may be no ‘going back’ after COVID 
13/05: UK pension schemes don’t trust the lockdown exit strategy 
06/05: Concerns over duration of COVID lockdown and macro effects intensify 
29/04: Professional COVID concern spikes by 18% as trustees brace for a longer lockdown 
22/04: Macro effects of COVID to last until 2022, with personal concerns up by 10% 
15/04: COVID concerns fluctuate – there is no path to normalisation in sight 
08/04: The magnitude of COVID’s economic impact remains unclear 
01/04: Have UK pensions schemes settled into the ‘new normal’ of COVID-19? 
25/03: Rising levels of concern about COVID and a changing economy 
23/03: What do pension funds think about the economic impact of COVID-19? 
19/03: COVID-19: Government response divides pensions community 
18/03: 96% of pension funds and trustees preparing for a long-term COVID-19 fallout 
18/03: mallowstreet Flash Insights Report: COVID-19 – what’s on trustees’ minds 
 
 
About the COVID Concern Index 
 
This short survey helps gauge sentiment of our community on the pandemic. The results are distributed via the community newsletter. Until 31/08/2020, this was a weekly survey. From 01/09/2020, the survey shifted to a bi-weekly cadence. 
 
The COVID Concern Index values should be used as indication only and do not constitute advice. Their values are bound by the choices available in the survey on which they are based. 
 
COVID Concern Index: 
 
 
Expected minimum duration of outbreak: 
 
A methodology change took place on 06/10/2020, affecting data from 20/10/2020 onwards. 
 
Prior to 06/10/2020: 
 
 
Following 20/10/2020: 

 
Expected minimum duration of macro effects: 
 
A methodology change took place on 15/04/2020, affecting data from 21/04/2020 onwards. 
 
Prior to 15/04/2020: 
 
 
Following 15/04/2020: 
 
 
Macro rates index: 
 
 
Sector sentiment index: 
 
 
Concerned about the coronavirus outbreak and its macro implications? Click here to take part in the bi-weekly COVID-19 survey. 


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