Vaccine uptake has shown promise but we’re not out of the woods yet
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Rates of concern have dropped sharply in our COVID-19 indices compared with two weeks ago. However, some members of our research panel are wary that many people are not taking the risks of spreading the virus seriously. Another fear among panellists is that we do not have enough evidence to determine if existing vaccines will prove effective against new variants.
Has Westminster’s gamble paid off?
In our last report, our panel was worried that Whitehall was being reckless in its rush to go forward with its ‘Freedom Day’ plans, and many were critical of its approach. However, the proportion of those ‘very’ or ‘extremely’ worried about the government’s guidance has dropped from 40% to 13%. Worries are lower but many remain unconvinced that the government has a coherent plan in place. Nevertheless, there are reasons to feel more optimistic, for example, some in our survey are happy that more teenagers are embracing the jab and that the NHS is doing a good job managing current case numbers.
We should wait a few more months before returning to in-person events
Three weeks have passed since the government removed safety restrictions on 19 July, and most of the country have embraced these freedoms by taking holidays in the UK, visiting family and friends, and socialising in public places like their local pub.
However, our panel warns that it is too early for a wholesale return to other activities, especially working from the office, which they expect will be delayed until November. They also conclude that gatherings in larger social venues are not safe enough and that that we will not see a return to live events until October.
COVID – here to stay for the foreseeable future?
The world is coming to terms with a new reality in which COVID-19 and its variants may well become a permanent fixture in our lives. The UK has had a successful vaccination campaign, but our panel warns that new variants will continue to pose challenges moving forward. Some are also worried that the macro impact of this pandemic will be extremely long-lasting because many governments borrowed heavily for their support schemes, which will inevitably force them into making hard decisions about how to pay off their debts. Given the complexities of these challenges, they expect the macro effects of COVID to last until 2024.
How do you feel safe about attending live events and what can the government to do get a better handle on this pandemic? Click hereto tell us in our bi-weekly survey.
Previous articles in this series:
05/05: COVID concern indices dip to all-time lows as most covenants are left unchanged by the pandemic
About the COVID Concern Index
This short survey helps gauge sentiment of our community on the pandemic. The results are distributed via the community newsletter. Until 31/08/2020, this was a weekly survey. From 01/09/2020, the survey shifted to a bi-weekly cadence.
The COVID Concern Index values should be used as indication only and do not constitute advice. Their values are bound by the choices available in the survey on which they are based.
COVID Concern Index:
- 0 = respondents are not worried at all
- 100 = respondents are extremely worried
Expected minimum duration of outbreak:
A methodology change took place on 06/10/2020, affecting data from 20/10/2020 onwards.
Prior to 06/10/2020:
- Lowest possible value = 1 month
- Highest possible value = 6 months
Following 20/10/2020:
- Lowest possible value = 1 month
- Highest possible value = 12 months
Expected minimum duration of macro effects:
A methodology change took place on 15/04/2020, affecting data from 21/04/2020 onwards.
Prior to 15/04/2020:
- Lowest possible value = 3 months
- Highest possible value = 12 months
Following 15/04/2020:
- Lowest possible value = 3 months
- Highest possible value = 60 months
Macro rates index:
- -100 = all respondents think rates will fall
- 0 = all respondents think rates will stay the same
- +100 = all respondents think rates will rise
Sector sentiment index:
- -100 = all respondents think the sector will be a ‘loser’ in the pandemic
- 0 = all respondents see a neutral outlook for the sector
- +100 = all respondents think the sector will be a ‘winner’ in the pandemic
Concerned about the coronavirus outbreak and its macro implications? Click here to take part in the bi-weekly COVID-19 survey.