COVID fears are on the rise – will vaccines prove resistant to new variants?
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Rates of concern over the risks of COVID-19 are ticking higher. The biggest movement over the past two weeks was with family concerns – up 26%. One of the main reasons concerns are greater has to do with waning confidence in vaccine efficacy. In fact, some in our research panel are no longer convinced that being fully vaccinated is enough to protect them or their loved ones from new variants.
We must remain vigilant
Fears over the risks of COVID-19 are warranted, and despite the UK’s continued success in increasing its vaccination rates, we should still be mindful that the possibility of infection remains high. The case for added caution is further supported by available data from the UK government, which shows a recent uptick in the number of infections and patients admitted. We are clearly a long way out from being free of the risks from further outbreaks and should therefore expect to see more cases until early next summer.
Will Zoom fatigue prompt a return to the office?
Nearly four in five pension professionals are predominantly working from home. However, people are longing for more in-person interactions with their colleagues. We are not necessarily seeing a wholesale return to full-time office work just yet, however 21% regularly commute to their office for in-person meetings.
Despite the desire for more in-person engagement, 67% are not comfortable with the idea of attending an in-person event. Some are warming up to events though, and a third would be ‘somewhat’ comfortable attending a live event.
How soon is too soon?
Our panel contends that social contact should be carried out on a case-by-case basis. Many are already in contact with their loved ones and closest acquaintances, and some think the occasional trip to a pub or trip throughout the UK are reasonably safe endeavours. However, they are much more cautious about in-person meetings and events, and suggest we hold off on returning to both until later this year. The panel is also less certain that working from the office full-time is a safe decision, countering that we should play it safe and instead push a wholesale return to the office until next year.
The macro-consequences of COVID will be long-lasting
COVID-19 has been devastating for many parts of our economic and social care systems, and the nation is still coming to terms with extent of the pandemic’s long-term effects. We have already seen that higher vaccination rates do not necessarily shield us from the risks of further infections, and eventually governments will need to make hard decisions about the best ways to pay for the support schemes they enacted during lockdown. With so much uncertainty about the future pension professionals do not expect us to be rid of the pandemic’s macro effects until 2024.
Will we need a new cycle of vaccinations to keep up our resistance to new variants, and what safety protocols need to be enacted? Click here to tell us in our bi-weekly survey.
Previous articles in this series:
05/05: COVID concern indices dip to all-time lows as most covenants are left unchanged by the pandemic
2020:
About the COVID Concern Index
This short survey helps gauge sentiment of our community on the pandemic. The results are distributed via the community newsletter. Until 31/08/2020, this was a weekly survey. From 01/09/2020, the survey shifted to a bi-weekly cadence.
The COVID Concern Index values should be used as indication only and do not constitute advice. Their values are bound by the choices available in the survey on which they are based.
COVID Concern Index:
- 0 = respondents are not worried at all
- 100 = respondents are extremely worried
Expected minimum duration of outbreak:
A methodology change took place on 06/10/2020, affecting data from 20/10/2020 onwards.
Prior to 06/10/2020:
- Lowest possible value = 1 month
- Highest possible value = 6 months
Following 20/10/2020:
- Lowest possible value = 1 month
- Highest possible value = 12 months
Expected minimum duration of macro effects:
A methodology change took place on 15/04/2020, affecting data from 21/04/2020 onwards.
Prior to 15/04/2020:
- Lowest possible value = 3 months
- Highest possible value = 12 months
Following 15/04/2020:
- Lowest possible value = 3 months
- Highest possible value = 60 months
Macro rates index:
- -100 = all respondents think rates will fall
- 0 = all respondents think rates will stay the same
- +100 = all respondents think rates will rise
Sector sentiment index:
- -100 = all respondents think the sector will be a ‘loser’ in the pandemic
- 0 = all respondents see a neutral outlook for the sector
- +100 = all respondents think the sector will be a ‘winner’ in the pandemic
Concerned about the coronavirus outbreak and its macro implications? Click here to take part in the bi-weekly COVID-19 survey.