COVID fears are on the rise – will vaccines prove resistant to new variants? 

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Rates of concern over the risks of COVID-19 are ticking higher. The biggest movement over the past two weeks was with family concerns – up 26%. One of the main reasons concerns are greater has to do with waning confidence in vaccine efficacy. In fact, some in our research panel are no longer convinced that being fully vaccinated is enough to protect them or their loved ones from new variants. 


 

We must remain vigilant 

 
Fears over the risks of COVID-19 are warranted, and despite the UK’s continued success in increasing its vaccination rates, we should still be mindful that the possibility of infection remains high. The case for added caution is further supported by available data from the UK government, which shows a recent uptick in the number of infections and patients admitted. We are clearly a long way out from being free of the risks from further outbreaks and should therefore expect to see more cases until early next summer.  


 

Will Zoom fatigue prompt a return to the office?  

 
Nearly four in five pension professionals are predominantly working from home. However, people are longing for more in-person interactions with their colleagues. We are not necessarily seeing a wholesale return to full-time office work just yet, however 21% regularly commute to their office for in-person meetings. 
 
Despite the desire for more in-person engagement, 67% are not comfortable with the idea of attending an in-person event.  Some are warming up to events though, and a third would be ‘somewhat’ comfortable attending a live event. 


 

How soon is too soon?  

 
Our panel contends that social contact should be carried out on a case-by-case basis. Many are already in contact with their loved ones and closest acquaintances, and some think the occasional trip to a pub or trip throughout the UK are reasonably safe endeavours. However, they are much more cautious about in-person meetings and events, and suggest we hold off on returning to both until later this year. The panel is also less certain that working from the office full-time is a safe decision, countering that we should play it safe and instead push a wholesale return to the office until next year.    



 

The macro-consequences of COVID will be long-lasting   

 
COVID-19 has been devastating for many parts of our economic and social care systems, and the nation is still coming to terms with extent of the pandemic’s long-term effects. We have already seen that higher vaccination rates do not necessarily shield us from the risks of further infections, and eventually governments will need to make hard decisions about the best ways to pay for the support schemes they enacted during lockdown. With so much uncertainty about the future pension professionals do not expect us to be rid of the pandemic’s macro effects until 2024. 


 
Will we need a new cycle of vaccinations to keep up our resistance to new variants, and what safety protocols need to be enacted? Click here to tell us in our bi-weekly survey. 
 
 
Previous articles in this series: 
 
25/08: COVID-19 is here to stay – but is this the new normal?    
11/08: Vaccine uptake has shown promise but we’re not out of the woods yet 
28/07: Mounting concerns driven by rising cases and slowing vaccination rates
14/07: COVID concerns climb to their highest levels since April 
30/06: COVID-19 concerns are down but the delta variant remains a key worry 
16/06: COVID-19 concerns rise as delta variant delays reopening and recovery 
03/06: Rising challenges could disrupt the country’s race towards herd immunity 
20/05: New risks emerge as many come to grips with the spread of new COVID variants 
05/05: COVID concern indices dip to all-time lows as most covenants are left unchanged by the pandemic 
20/04: A silver lining – economy likely to hit pre-pandemic levels in 2022 
07/04: Professional COVID concerns plummet to all-time lows 
25/03: Covid concerns are down, but new risks emerge 
11/03: Concerns over the pandemic’s lasting impact on the world of work are growing 
24/02: Pension professionals urge caution as vaccination efforts continue 
12/02: High vaccinations rates bring down COVID-19 concerns 
27/01: COVID-19 concerns at an all-time high 
13/01: New COVID-19 strain makes pandemic spiral out of control 
 
2020: 
 
15/12: Another COVID summer on the cards despite vaccine rollout 
02/12: Divergent COVID-19 concerns show different realities 
18/11: The risks and consequences of COVID-19 complacency 
04/11: Sharp rise in COVID-19 concerns before the second lockdown in England 
22/10: COVID-19 outbreak to last at least until June 2021 
07/10: Prolonged COVID-19 outbreak is putting pressure on covenants 
23/09: How will the second COVID-19 wave impact UK schemes? 
17/09: Trust in UK government dwindling due to COVID-19 
26/08: Another step in adjusting to COVID-19 uncertainty? 
19/08: COVID-19 outbreak to last at least until February 2021 
12/08: Trustee sentiment around COVID-19 pandemic deteriorates 
05/08: Relaxed attitudes towards COVID-19 threaten economic recovery 
29/07: Does COVID-19 mean the ‘end of the world as we know it’? 
22/07: COVID-19 could weaken covenants and raise taxes and inflation 
15/07: COVID expectations set, except for economic recovery 
08/07: COVID concerns rise as economic outlook improves - why? 
01/07: Lockdown easing raises COVID concerns 
24/06: The UK government’s COVID-19 guidance attracts criticism 
17/06: COVID concerns shift to life after lockdown 
10/06: Will lockdown easing cause COVID concerns to rise? 
03/06: COVID concerns at an all-time low – is the worst over? 
27/05: Personal COVID concern subsides – but this may be a problem 
20/05: UK pension trustees worry there may be no ‘going back’ after COVID 
13/05: UK pension schemes don’t trust the lockdown exit strategy 
06/05: Concerns over duration of COVID lockdown and macro effects intensify 
29/04: Professional COVID concern spikes by 18% as trustees brace for a longer lockdown 
22/04: Macro effects of COVID to last until 2022, with personal concerns up by 10% 
15/04: COVID concerns fluctuate – there is no path to normalisation in sight 
08/04: The magnitude of COVID’s economic impact remains unclear 
01/04: Have UK pensions schemes settled into the ‘new normal’ of COVID-19? 
25/03: Rising levels of concern about COVID and a changing economy 
23/03: What do pension funds think about the economic impact of COVID-19? 
19/03: COVID-19: Government response divides pensions community 
18/03: 96% of pension funds and trustees preparing for a long-term COVID-19 fallout 
18/03: mallowstreet Flash Insights Report: COVID-19 – what’s on trustees’ minds 
 
 
About the COVID Concern Index 
 
This short survey helps gauge sentiment of our community on the pandemic. The results are distributed via the community newsletter. Until 31/08/2020, this was a weekly survey. From 01/09/2020, the survey shifted to a bi-weekly cadence. 
 
The COVID Concern Index values should be used as indication only and do not constitute advice. Their values are bound by the choices available in the survey on which they are based. 
 
COVID Concern Index: 
 
 
Expected minimum duration of outbreak: 
 
A methodology change took place on 06/10/2020, affecting data from 20/10/2020 onwards. 
 
Prior to 06/10/2020: 
 
 
Following 20/10/2020: 
 
 
Expected minimum duration of macro effects: 
 
A methodology change took place on 15/04/2020, affecting data from 21/04/2020 onwards. 
 
Prior to 15/04/2020: 
 
 
Following 15/04/2020: 
 
 
Macro rates index: 
 
 
Sector sentiment index: 
 
 
Concerned about the coronavirus outbreak and its macro implications? Click here to take part in the bi-weekly COVID-19 survey. 

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