CMI: 2020-21 death rates worst since WW II
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Combined mortality for the two-year period 2020-21 was 5.5% above the 2015-19 average, the Continuous Mortality Investigation has said, pointing out that such a big increase last occurred in 1940-41.
The CMI, which produces mortality tables for life insurers and pension funds, noted that although mortality can be volatile from year to year, falls tend to be observed over time, making it rare to see mortality in a year being higher than the preceding five-year average. This is however what happened in 2020 and 2021, having been the case only twice in the preceding 50 years.
“Although weekly excess mortality in the second half of 2021 hasn’t been nearly as high as the peaks of earlier waves, it has been persistent. This has led to nearly as many excess deaths in the second half of 2021 as in the first half,” said Cobus Daneel, who chairs the CMI Mortality Projections Committee.
“Taken together, 2020-2021 has been a remarkable two-year period, with a greater increase in mortality than we have seen since World War II," he added.
“Taken together, 2020-2021 has been a remarkable two-year period, with a greater increase in mortality than we have seen since World War II," he added.
Under-65s were most affected last year, according to the CMI; while mortality for 2021 as a whole has been 5.7% lower than in 2020, mortality for under-65s was around 3.1% higher. For those 65 and older, it was 7.1% lower.
The CMI's mortality monitor weekly updates are available on the mortality monitor page.
