The Continuous Mortality Investigation has found excess mortality in England and Wales during the Covid-19 pandemic was the third highest of 12 Western European and Nordic territories. 

 

Mortality in England and Wales from the start of the pandemic until the end of 2022 was 26% higher than expected, making it the ninth highest of all 24 territories based on data from the Human Mortality Database, the CMI found in a new working paper published on Wednesday and available without subscription. Of Western European countries, Scotland had the fifth highest cumulative mortality rate. 

 

“England and Wales was hit hard by the first two waves of the coronavirus pandemic and then has continued to experience persistent elevated mortality since mid-2021,” said Cobus Daneel, who chairs the CMI Mortality Projections Committee. 

 

Compared to other territories, England and Wales was particularly badly affected in 2020 and early 2021, with the second highest cumulative excess mortality to week 30 of 2020 and the fourth highest to week 9 of 2021, according to the CMI. Its excess mortality since mid-2021 is the third highest for European territories.  

 

The only western Europe territories with higher cumulative excess mortality than England and Wales during the pandemic are Austria and Italy. The former had relatively low but consistent excess mortality through the period, while Italy saw a very high level of excess mortality during 2020. Northern Italy was the first European area to be hit by Covid before the virus spread rapidly across the continent.  

 

Cumulative excess mortality from week 10 of 2020 – western European and Nordic territories 

Cumulative excess mortality from week 10 of 2020 – all other territories 

 

 

Of all territories analysed, Bulgaria had the highest cumulative excess mortality to the end of 2022 (+65%), according to the CMI. Poland had the second highest (+46%) and the USA the third highest (+45%). 

 

The lowest rate over the period could be found in New Zealand, where cumulative excess mortality was -4%, meaning fewer people died compared to previous periods. Australia had the second lowest (+1%) and Norway the third lowest (+3%). 

 

The CMI calculates excess deaths assessing the expected annual mortality for each territory by fitting a trend to age-standardised mortality for the period 2010-2019 (or a later starting year for four territories where data is not available back to 2010) and using the fitted value for 2019. It allows for seasonal variations in mortality for each territory based on its historical pattern of mortality over the same period. How excess deaths are measured can differ. Unlike the CMI, the Office for National Statistics previously found that age-standardised mortality in 2022 was below average based on provisional data. 

 

      

How do the mortality figures affect pension providers?