Mortality in England and Wales in 2023 was 3% higher than in 2019, a period referred as the pre-pandemic benchmark, but it was lower than in 2020, 2021 and 2022, according to analysis by the Continuous Mortality Investigation. 

The CMI’s notes a “striking difference” in how mortality rates in 2023 compared to 2019 at different ages, ranging from 10% higher for ages 20-44 to 1% higher for ages 75-84.

Cobus Daneel, chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said: “The fourth quarter of 2023 saw negative excess mortality for the first time since the first quarter of 2022. Overall, 2023 had the third lowest mortality rate on record – with only 2014 and 2019 being lower. However, we note that 2014 was nearly a decade ago, and if mortality had improved at the same rate as in the latter part of the 20th century, mortality rates in 2023 would have been much lower.”

Excess deaths have been falling during 2023, said the CMI, and were close to zero in the second half of the year. 

In the UK, there have been around 173,800 more registered deaths from all causes than expected from the start of the pandemic to 5 January 2024. Of these, 74,700 were registered in 2020, 49,000 in 2021, 28,000 in 2022, and 22,000 in 2023.

The CMI intends to stop calculating excess mortality after this week’s analysis, adding: “While monitoring excess deaths was informative early in the pandemic, calculation of excess deaths becomes more subjective the further we get from our pre-pandemic benchmark year of 2019.”

The organisation will still include standardised death rates in future versions of the monitor.