University Dinner: Jumpers for Goalposts, Forward Guidance and other Moveable Feasts
The crisis is ending, numbers
are improving, growth is returning in most major economies, or at least the
negativity is slowing. Problem solved. The recovery may go down in history as
one of the greatest central bank and policy management periods of all time…or
will it?
Arguably, at least as much depends on the exit as it did on the entry.
On that front, the lack of cohesion, co-ordination and clarity presents its own
set of long and winding roads to navigate for the respective economies. What holds for the central banks in terms of challenges, holds for
institutional investors. Everything is a view, and as the old trading saying
goes, “I’m a trader, I’m entitled to change my view.” Yesterday’s central
bankers have become today’s traders. Happy new year to you all.
In the first ManGLG mallowstreet University Dinner of 2014 Mohit Kumar, portfolio manager on the GLG
Global Rates Fund, will discuss the shift from QE to tapering; where the
liquidity injection has left us and what the return journey towards normality
may mean.
This event is FREE to attend for Senior Pension Fund Decision Makers. Places are strictly limited, so to avoid disappointment register your interest in attending below and we will endeavor to confirm your place as soon as possible.
Food for thought:
US The Fed has started tapering, but will QE end
by 2014? Unemployment is likely to reach 6.5% way before
the Fed expectation of rate hikes. How long can the Fed wait before they start
hiking rates? Is the macro-economic picture poised to surprise
to the upside in 2014? No one cares about inflation anymore. But is it
really dead?
UK Where do we believe UK rate equilibrium should
be and how soon should we expect to move towards that? What is the driving factor for rates: GDP,
inflation risk, the currency…or the next election? Is there a concern that mortgage lending is
rising at such a fast pace, do we risk re-inflating that bubble in a low rate
environment? How credible is the BoE forward guidance. Will
it the first central bank among the majors (Fed, BoE, BoJ and ECB) to hike
rates?
Europe
Is another restructuring likely in Europe over
the next 3 years? Peripherals – macro picture still weak but
should investors still be long? France has been everyone’s favourite short – so
why does the spread keep compressing? What opportunities does a deflationary risk in
Europe versus an inflationary risk in the US and the UK present?
Japan ‘Abenomics’ will it succeed? NKY, JPY and JGBs – what offers the best value
for investors to play the Japanese story?
To avoid disappointment please register your interest in attending below and we will endeavor to confirm your place as soon as possible.
Speakers
Mohit Kumar
Mohit Kumar | Asset Manager, Fixed Income Mohiy joined GLG in May 2013. Previously, Mohit was Head of Euroland rates strategy at Deutsche Bank where he was responsible for formulating rates strategies and trade ideas for European sovereign fixed income, both for Deutsche Bank traders as well as firm's key clients. Prior to his role at DB, he was a proprietary trader at Goldman Sachs, trading a variety of asset classes including fixed income, equities and FX from a macro perspective. Mohit holds a B. Tech in Computer Science form IT Delhi and an MBA from IIM Ahmedabad.
