COVID concerns fluctuate – there is no path to normalisation in sight
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The mallowstreet COVID Concern Indices have broken their downward trend, with increased personal and professional concern reflecting continued uncertainty.
Respondents in the weekly survey increasingly report they know someone with COVID-19, and Boris Johnson’s illness is a further reminder of our individual vulnerability.
There is no clear way out of the current crisis
UK pension professionals are concerned that no route to normalisation has been laid out yet. With the outbreak continuing, its macro consequences are still expected to last at least about a year.
As the number of daily new cases subside globally, the end of lockdown may appear deceptively close. But there is no guarantee that the virus will remain contained after restrictions are lifted.
The delays in business planning and investment decisions have hit the bottom line of many industries, especially automotives and retail, with one trustee reporting that pension contributions have come to a halt.
This is making UK pension funds question whether the government may come to regret its current decision to prioritise protecting the vulnerable.
No one thinks the economy will stay the same
For two weeks now, 100% of UK pension professionals think that the economy will change at least to some extent after the outbreak is over.
Lockdown measures are slowly driving the UK into recession, and the increase in public debt spells another decade of low growth.
What does the future look like beyond the next 12 months?
Due to popular demand and to capture concerns about the long term more accurately, mallowstreet has made one change to its weekly survey.
Respondents can now share whether they expect the macro consequences of the coronavirus pandemic to last up to two, five or more years.
Let us know how COVID-19 is affecting you today, personally and professionally – click here to take the weekly survey.
About the COVID Concern Index
This short weekly survey helps gauge sentiment of our community on the pandemic. The results are distributed each week via the community newsletter.
The COVID Concern Index values should be used as indication only and do not constitute advice. Their values are bound by the choices available in the survey on which they are based.
COVID Concern Index:
- 0 = respondents are not worried at all
- 100 = respondents are extremely worried
Expected minimum duration of outbreak:
- Lowest possible value = 1 month
- Highest possible value = 6 months
Expected minimum duration of macro effects:
- Lowest possible value = 3 months
- Highest possible value = 12 months
