Lingering concerns over the risks of new infections despite vaccination uptake
Pardon the Interruption
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Changes in our COVID indices show an interesting divergence: family and professional concerns have both dipped, but personal concerns are slightly higher. Some are wary because many in the public remain unvaccinated, but even with a double jab, we are still vulnerable to catching this virus. Another cause of concern is the risk of co-infection, although fortunately very few cases have been reported thus far. Nevertheless, with flu season just around the corner our panel urges the public to be mindful of the threats posed by newer variants as another wave of infections would land hardest on target society’s most vulnerable.
The line between negligence and ineptness - has Whitehall mismanaged its pandemic response?
Pension professionals remain sceptical of Westminster’s approach to the pandemic. In fact, four out five are ‘somewhat’ or ‘very’ worried by its pandemic guidance while only 18% are not worried at all. Several say that politicians are now downplaying the risks of COVID-19. This has, in the eyes of some, exacerbated the spread of infections by encouraging the public to adopt a blasé attitude about mask wearing.
A return to live events will require robust safety protocols
Over the past two-weeks trustees have started to work more frequently from the office. Now nearly one-fifth are either predominantly working in their office or going in one or two days a week, while 23% regularly commute to attend meetings.
This shift has also coincided with a larger embrace of in-person events, and now over half in our panel are ‘somewhat’ or ‘very’ comfortable going to an event. This is a notable departure from how they felt in our previous survey when over two-thirds (67%) were not comfortable with this idea. However, it is important that attendees are given assurances that sufficient safety protocols will be put in place. For example, events could be scaled down to allow for some semblance of social distancing. Schemes also suggest that event coordinators only allow fully vaccinated people to attend these gatherings.
Paying the piper spells challenging times for the British economy
Most schemes expect to see an uptick in interest rates, inflation and taxes because of the pandemic. The government’s Health and Social Care tax is a key example. Others are worried that the greater demand for raw materials, along with higher transportation costs, will trigger spikes in both inflation and interest rates respectively.
Governments around the world have also run up a lot of debt to finance their support schemes, but our panel is worried that many businesses could collapse once those are removed. If this happens, it will wreak further havoc on the economy and add another strain on the state’s balance sheet. Given these considerations our research panel says we should not expect to see COVID’s macro-consequences dissipate until 2023.
What do you think will happen with inflation and interest rates, and to what extent will the removal of government support schemes help or harm the economy? Click here to tell us in our bi-weekly survey.
Previous articles in this series:
05/05: COVID concern indices dip to all-time lows as most covenants are left unchanged by the pandemic
2020:
About the COVID Concern Index
This short survey helps gauge sentiment of our community on the pandemic. The results are distributed via the community newsletter. Until 31/08/2020, this was a weekly survey. From 01/09/2020, the survey shifted to a bi-weekly cadence.
The COVID Concern Index values should be used as indication only and do not constitute advice. Their values are bound by the choices available in the survey on which they are based.
COVID Concern Index:
- 0 = respondents are not worried at all
- 100 = respondents are extremely worried
Expected minimum duration of outbreak:
A methodology change took place on 06/10/2020, affecting data from 20/10/2020 onwards.
Prior to 06/10/2020:
- Lowest possible value = 1 month
- Highest possible value = 6 months
Following 20/10/2020:
- Lowest possible value = 1 month
- Highest possible value = 12 months
Expected minimum duration of macro effects:
A methodology change took place on 15/04/2020, affecting data from 21/04/2020 onwards.
Prior to 15/04/2020:
- Lowest possible value = 3 months
- Highest possible value = 12 months
Following 15/04/2020:
- Lowest possible value = 3 months
- Highest possible value = 60 months
Macro rates index:
- -100 = all respondents think rates will fall
- 0 = all respondents think rates will stay the same
- +100 = all respondents think rates will rise
Sector sentiment index:
- -100 = all respondents think the sector will be a ‘loser’ in the pandemic
- 0 = all respondents see a neutral outlook for the sector
- +100 = all respondents think the sector will be a ‘winner’ in the pandemic
Concerned about the coronavirus outbreak and its macro implications? Click here to take part in the bi-weekly COVID-19 survey.