A winter of discontent – rising cases prompt new concerns over the risks of COVID-19
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Emerging risks have renewed worries over the dangers of COVID-19, and this is reflected in the fact that family concerns are up 14% in our indices. Much of this increase has to do with fears over rates of mortality and hospitalisations, which have continued to rise. Professional concerns are down slightly, but if infections keep climbing higher, the government may need to reinstate working from home or reimpose travel restrictions, which may put further strain on the global economy.
As a result, scepticism about the effectiveness of Whitehall’s approach to the pandemic is starting to rise again. A quarter of our COVID research panel are ‘very’ worried about the current pandemic guidance, and more than two-thirds say they are ‘somewhat’ worried. One of the central criticisms is that the government has previously taken necessary action far too late. Another issue is that the present guidance on safety is too lenient and has encouraged the public to stop social distancing or wearing facemasks.
In the face of rising cases, is it too soon for a return to live events?
Safety concerns have not entirely reduced the appeal of office work or in-person events. Indeed, one in five now spend one to two days in the office, and 13% commute for in-person meetings.
Events are also more popular than they were earlier in the year. Nearly two-thirds are ‘very’ or ‘somewhat’ comfortable attending a live event as long as sensible safety precautions are in place. However, not everyone is so enthusiastic – over a third are not yet comfortable with the idea of in-person events.
In our previous report, many members of our COVID panel were holding off on work-related activities like seeing their colleagues or holding in-person meetings. Given the rising case numbers and risks of further infections, our panel continues to stress the importance of public safety. They suggest that everyone should play it safe and wait until next year before a mass return to larger in-person activities. Many are also likely to wait until later this year before they start to work with their colleagues in-person again.
We must brace ourselves for further outbreaks until the end of next summer
Spiking case rates have prompted UK pension professionals to reassess their views of the pandemic. Previously, they expected that we could see a reprieve from the duration of the outbreak by the start of next summer, but now it is looking far more likely to last until the end of next August.
The economy is still in a rough place, and the looming threat of a further spike in cases and possible restrictions will continue to threaten the prospects for a speedy recovery. Our panel expects that it will take another two years before the economy rebounds to its pre-pandemic levels.
Has the recent spike in cases made you wary about in-person activities? What safety measures are needed? Click here to tell us in our bi-weekly survey.
This short survey helps gauge sentiment of our community on the pandemic. The results are distributed via the community newsletter. Until 31/08/2020, this was a weekly survey. From 01/09/2020, the survey shifted to a bi-weekly cadence.
The COVID Concern Index values should be used as indication only and do not constitute advice. Their values are bound by the choices available in the survey on which they are based.
COVID Concern Index:
0 = respondents are not worried at all
100 = respondents are extremely worried
Expected minimum duration of outbreak:
A methodology change took place on 06/10/2020, affecting data from 20/10/2020 onwards.
Prior to 06/10/2020:
Lowest possible value = 1 month
Highest possible value = 6 months
Following 20/10/2020:
Lowest possible value = 1 month
Highest possible value = 12 months
Expected minimum duration of macro effects:
A methodology change took place on 15/04/2020, affecting data from 21/04/2020 onwards.
Prior to 15/04/2020:
Lowest possible value = 3 months
Highest possible value = 12 months
Following 15/04/2020:
Lowest possible value = 3 months
Highest possible value = 60 months
Macro rates index:
-100 = all respondents think rates will fall
0 = all respondents think rates will stay the same
+100 = all respondents think rates will rise
Sector sentiment index:
-100 = all respondents think the sector will be a ‘loser’ in the pandemic
0 = all respondents see a neutral outlook for the sector
+100 = all respondents think the sector will be a ‘winner’ in the pandemic
Concerned about the coronavirus outbreak and its macro implications? Click here to take part in the bi-weekly COVID-19 survey.
