Has COVID-19 become endemic? 

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As weekly infections remain elevated, our COVID concern indices have also ticked up – some by as much as 20%. However, they remain range-bound below the critical level of 50, suggesting an acceptable level of concern for a persistent but now familiar threat. 
 
The UK recently approved the first antiviral treatment against COVID-19. After that, we only received 10 responses in our bi-weekly survey. This leads us to ask: do UK trustees and consultants now view the virus as endemic? And should we discontinue our bi-weekly sentiment survey? 
 
 

Concerned members contradicting themselves? 

 
The COVID panel members who responded in our most recent survey show higher levels of concern about the virus – but perhaps those not concerned have stopped contributing their views. Participants are also increasingly unhappy with the UK government’s most recent guidance, pointing out that half of TfL commuters do not follow the mandatory mask-wearing requirements. 
 
 
Yet these panel members are bringing forward a number of activities that used to make them feel uneasy. For example, they are now happy to meet with friends in addition to meeting family. Some will also visit the pub or hold in-person meetings sooner than before. 
 
Admittedly, these social activities involve a smaller group of people, which our panel likely see as lower risk than larger gatherings. However, we still do not know how the winter festive period will affect the transmissibility of the virus even amongst friends and family. 
 
 
 

Is COVID-19 now endemic? 

 
Despite engaging in more face-to-face activities, our COVID research panel do not expect the outbreak to end until at least August next year. However, there are signs that the SARS-Cov-2 virus could become endemic by spring next year – but is not endemic just yet. 
 
This winter may end up being the last ‘wave’ of infections. And while Prime Minister Boris Johnson said further restrictions cannot be ruled out, he also emphasised that there is nothing in the current data to suggest a winter lockdown. After all, the booster programme is now in full swing in the UK, with anyone over 40 invited to get a third ‘shot’. 
 
 

How to weather the ‘perfect economic storm’? 

 
Against a backdrop of reducing concerns about COVID-19, the focus remains on the economic recovery. Certain sectors have been shaken recently – as of November, 24 energy companies have ceased trading, affecting 2m customers in the UK. But even more concerning, interest, tax and inflation rates are now rising in parallel with each other. 
 
 
Back in 2020, our COVID research panel deemed this an unlikely ‘perfect storm’, which has now become a reality. Exactly how it plays out remains to be seen and is largely dependent on how persistent inflation and supply chain disruptions globally will be. At any rate, our COVID panel participants do not expect the economy to be back to normal before Q2 2024. 
 

Is COVID-19 still a concern to you, and should we continue this bi-weekly series? Click here to tell us in our next survey. 


 

Previous articles in this series: 

 
 
2020: 
 
 
 

About the COVID Concern Index 

 
This short survey helps gauge sentiment of our community on the pandemic. The results are distributed via the community newsletter. Until 31/08/2020, this was a weekly survey. From 01/09/2020, the survey shifted to a bi-weekly cadence. 
 
The COVID Concern Index values should be used as indication only and do not constitute advice. Their values are bound by the choices available in the survey on which they are based. 
 
COVID Concern Index: 
 
 
Expected minimum duration of outbreak: 
 
A methodology change took place on 06/10/2020, affecting data from 20/10/2020 onwards. 
 
Prior to 06/10/2020: 
 
 
Following 20/10/2020: 
 
 
Expected minimum duration of macro effects: 
 
A methodology change took place on 15/04/2020, affecting data from 21/04/2020 onwards. 
 
Prior to 15/04/2020: 
 
 
Following 15/04/2020: 
 
 
Macro rates index: 
 
 
Sector sentiment index: 
 
 
Concerned about the coronavirus outbreak and its macro implications? Click here to take part in the bi-weekly COVID-19 survey. 

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